UFC 328 Cage Locks: Is there any way Strickland can upset Chimaev?

The last time Sean Strickland was a betting underdog with odds longer than four-to-one was when he shocked the world against former longtime champion Israel Adesanya in 2023.

Strickland’s middleweight title reign didn’t last too long but the American has returned to title contention and he headlines UFC 328 this Saturday when he challenges Khamzat Chimaev.

The current 185-pound champion has never been defeated in mixed martial arts and enters his first title defence as a significant betting favourite, according to BetMGM.

Chimaev and Strickland have not been shy about expressing their ill will towards each other. Chimaev even kicked Strickland at Thursday’s pre-fight press conference.

“Exactly what I expected a coward to do,” Strickland wrote on social media shortly after the pair were hauled offstage by security and police.

This anticipated middleweight championship fight headlines a night of action at the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J.

Saturday’s 13-fight card also features a men’s flyweight title matchup in the co-main event between new champ Joshua Van of Myanmar and Japan’s Tatsuro Taira.

Below is the projected bout order for UFC 328 (subject to change) plus full predictions from our panel…

MAIN CARD

-- Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland (for middleweight title)

-- Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira (for men’s flyweight title)

-- Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta

-- Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley

-- Bobby “King” Green vs. Jeremy Stephens

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Ateba Gautier vs. Osman Diaz

-- Joel Alvarez vs. Yaroslav Amosov

-- Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki

-- Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon

-- Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio

-- Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis

-- Baisangur Susurkaev vs. Djorden Santos

-- Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa

Ahead of each UFC event in 2026, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

AARON'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Baysangur Susurkaev -600

Favourite: Grant Dawson -170

Underdog: Joshua Van +140

Dart Throw: Sean Strickland +450

Susurkaev should be able to win fairly handily over Santos. I still feel like there is more potential to be unlocked. … Dawson’s biggest issue has been power punchers and Rebecki is more of a volume striker. Dawson should be able to control him for much of this fight and slow Rebecki down. … I understand Van being the underdog, but he is being undervalued at this price. If he can pressure Taira and avoid his opponent closing the distance, he can do some serious damage. … If Strickland can do to Chimaev what he did to another aggressive volume grappler in Hernandez, he can tire Chimaev out and take over. I cannot confidently predict that the fight goes this way, but it is a potential outcome.

DAN'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Ateba Gautier -1100

Favourite: Sean Brady -150

Underdog: Waldo Cortes Acosta +150

Dart Throw: Joshua Van by decision +500

Remember Goldberg’s WCW streak? There were certain matchups where you just knew the streak wasn’t going to end. There was no way guys like Van Hammer, Mike Enos and Barry Horowitz were going to end his run. I see Ateba Gautier’s run, albeit unscripted, similar to Goldberg’s run. He looks so much better in short bouts than his opponents. Last time out, Andrey Pulyaev may have been the equivalent of Steven Regal during Goldberg’s run. He pushed Gautier to the brink and took him out of his comfort zone. But Gautier rose to the occasion and will be a better fighter for it. With all due respect to Ozzy Diaz, you’re next! … I think the flyweight title bout goes the full five rounds and Van by decision at these odds represents as good a dart throw as any on this card. Both fighters are capable of ending this one inside the distance but could also cancel each other out. As fatigue begins to set in, I expect both fighters to take fewer risks and place the result in the judges’ hands.

I expect Sean Brady to bounce back from his loss to rising star Michael Morales by defeating Joaquin Buckley. Brady had been smothering opponents on the mat prior to getting knocked out by the explosive Morales. Buckley represents a similar threat, but I expect Brady to make the necessary minor adjustments and tilt the playing field in his favour on Saturday night. … Waldo Cortes Acosta is becoming a problem at heavyweight and if he is able to implement his gameplan there are multiple paths to victory here. He seems to be evolving with each bout and continues to show he is comfortable on the mat and has an above average gas tank. He’s also knocked out his last 3 opponents and has the potential to upset the odds inside the distance or on scorecards here.

MIKE'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Strickland to land 20+ significant strikes -225

Favourite: Alexander Volkov -149

Underdog: Sean Strickland +450

Dart Throw: Tatsuro Taira by split/majority decision +900

Over the past decade, Strickland has only landed fewer than 65 significant strikes in a fight on two occasions. He only landed 14 in a 2018 first-round welterweight loss to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, and only 15 in his first-round loss to Alex Pereira in 2022. While it’s entirely possible Chimaev runs through Strickland, completely stifles him and locks in a choke early but stylistically I think Strickland has a much better chance of putting hands on Chimaev than Dricus Du Plessis did last year. I also think Strickland is a live dog to win outright, so in my view these odds are too wide for how good Strickland is. … Massive fan of Josh Van and his fighting style, but I’d give Taira about a decent chance if this fight were to take place exclusively on the feet, and I feel Taira is the far better grappler. I see Taira being able to get a hold of Van and eventually finding success from back control in what should be an awesome, back-and-forth fight for however long it lasts.

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY

Three legs: Susurkaev + Gautier + Strickland lands 20 or more significant strikes

Parlay odds: -119 (to win: $83.83)

2026 STANDINGS AFTER 14 EVENTS

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY 

2026 record: 5-9 (L1)

2026 winnings: -$471.64 (on $100 bets)

AARON'S RECORDS/TOTALS (25-31, -6.24 units)

Cage Lock: 8-6 (-$446.60)

Favourite: 9-5 (+$16.71)

Underdog: 6-8 (+$55)

Dart throw: 2-12 (-$250)

DAN'S RECORDS/TOTALS (29-27, +2.01 units)

Cage Lock: 13-1 (+$106.04)

Favourite: 9-5 (-$59.91)

Underdog: 5-9 (-$195)

Dart throw: 2-12 (+$350)

MIKE'S RECORDS/TOTALS (23-32-1, -17.16 units)

Cage Lock: 11-3 (-$31.80)

Favourite: 9-6 (-$54.37)

Underdog: 4-9-1 (-$230)

Dart throw: 0-14 (-$1,400)

Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)